22 Starship Flights Needed for Lunar Landing, Safety Panel Says

A figure NASA has long guarded like a state secret has finally surfaced: 22. That is the number of Starship launches required to fuel a lunar lander for a mission to the Moon, according to a new estimate from a NASA safety panel. The figure, which represents a significant increase from previous discussions, raises fresh concerns about the feasibility of using the vehicle for this decade's lunar missions.

The estimate was discussed on Thursday by Charlie Precourt, a member of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel and a former astronaut. During the panel's quarterly meeting, he spoke about the risks associated with the Artemis Program and the prospect of landing humans on the Moon. The new figure stands in sharp contrast to earlier, more vague statements from the agency.

NASA has historically declined to provide a specific number for Starship tanker flights. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, then-director of NASA's Human Landing System program, said, "We have a general idea, but I'm reluctant to say exactly what that is." She later described the requirement as being in the "high single digits to the low double digits," a range that would suggest around a dozen launches.

The process involves launching a dedicated propellant depot into low-Earth orbit, followed by a series of tanker flights to fill it with the liquid oxygen and methane needed for the journey to the Moon and back. The plan has always hinged on SpaceX increasing Starship's lift capacity over time to reduce the number of tanker flights. However, some NASA officials now express concern that this improvement is not materializing soon enough.

The core issue is the sheer volume of launches required to enable a Starship-based lunar lander to fly to the Moon, land, and return to lunar orbit. For years, the number of flights needed to fully fuel such a vehicle has been a moving target, with officials citing figures ranging from the low teens to the high teens. The latest estimate of 22 represents a considerable logistical and operational undertaking.

This latest figure signals a potential roadblock for NASA's Artemis Program, which aims to return humans to the Moon this decade. The high number of launches needed to refuel a lander in low-Earth orbit could jeopardize the timeline for such missions if the vehicle's performance does not improve as anticipated.

The concern among some within the agency is that the required improvements to Starship's lift capacity are not happening quickly enough to make the rocket a viable option for landing astronauts on the Moon. If the launch cadence required to support such a mission remains high, it could create significant risks for the program's schedule and objectives.