Lebanon: 66.4% of Shi'ites Support State Control of Hezbollah Arms

Sixty-six and four-tenths percent of Lebanese Shi'ites support handing Hezbollah's weapons over to the state, according to a survey released in mid-October. The poll was conducted in September by Statistics Lebanon and sampled 800 individuals from the community that has traditionally formed the core of the militant group's support base.

The survey results, reported by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org, show a clear preference for state authority over armed conflict. Of the respondents, 29.6% wanted Hezbollah to retain its arsenal. Kataeb.org, which is linked to the Christian Kataeb Party that opposes Hezbollah, noted that 71.1% of those surveyed believed decisions on war and peace should rest solely with the Lebanese government. Only 5.9% indicated that Hezbollah leadership should play a larger role in shaping the country's future.

Trust in the national military appears to have risen. Approximately 78.5% of respondents said they trusted the Lebanese Armed Forces. A further 51.1% identified the army as the institution best positioned to guarantee long-term security, compared to 16.5% who chose Hezbollah. These figures contrast with the group's long-standing argument that its arsenal is essential for defending Lebanon against Israel.

Opinions on Hezbollah's performance in recent conflicts are divided. About 67.4% of respondents said the group failed to meet its goals in the war with Israel or achieved only some of them. A majority of 59.5% still expressed some level of trust in the organization, including 37.1% who reported a great deal of trust. Roi Kais of KAN noted that Hezbollah's support networks and status within the sect continue to sustain its strength as long as no other entity fills the vacuum.

Earlier data presented a different picture. In an analysis for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni cited a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International. That study found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah, while only 7.9% supported giving up its weapons. The researchers argued that weakening the group would require a stronger army and financial support from Western and Gulf nations to replace services Hezbollah provides.

Hezbollah has announced aid packages for families affected by the destruction caused by the war that began in March 2026. The group will provide up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 for those elsewhere. The group has also suffered leadership losses, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024.

In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building. They feared the location could be targeted in an Israeli strike, a risk that has materialized in previous attacks on such branches.