Alcis Satellite Data Reveals 9,000 Hectares of Poppies in Balochistan

David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on illicit drugs, reported in August that satellite imagery from the British firm Alcis identified more than 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation in Pakistan's Balochistan province. This finding marks a sharp increase in production in the region, which borders Afghanistan and Iran. Mansfield, author of A State Built On Sand, stated that the remote borderlands of these three countries have effectively become a global center for opium production.

The shift follows the Taliban's wide-ranging ban on illicit narcotics in 2022, which caused Afghanistan's opium output to fall. However, cultivation has not vanished entirely. Instead, it has migrated across borders. Mansfield noted that the Taliban ban, combined with instability in the tri-border area, created conditions for widespread poppy cultivation in Pakistan's Balochistan and parts of Iran.

Balochistan, Pakistan's largest and poorest province, is at the core of this expansion. Most of the new cultivation is concentrated in the districts of Loralai and Killa Abdullah. Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former National Assembly member from Killa Abdullah, described the cultivation as rampant. He alleged that senior military officials and pro-government power brokers back the effort and take commissions from growers. Monawar Hussain, the district's chief administrative officer, rejected this claim, stating that cultivation declined after an eradication campaign last year. However, Alcis imagery from 2026 shows no clear evidence of such eradication.

An anonymous farmer in Killa Abdullah said growers pay bribes to local authorities through influential intermediaries. He noted that when media coverage draws pressure, growers sometimes plant poppies on barren land so officials can destroy the crop and publicize the effort. Lala Jan Kakar, another resident, said insecurity, drought, and flash floods have devastated traditional fruit farming. He stated that the demand for poppies is much higher than for fruits and generates more income.

The surge in Pakistan is driven by Afghan opium farmers crossing the border from Kandahar and Helmand. These farmers lease land, bringing money and expertise. Kakar noted that they invest millions of Pakistani rupees in solar-powered wells and share profits with landowners. Poppies can be harvested twice a year. Many farmers doubled their cultivated land in 2026. Mansfield called this a stark indication that much higher cultivation levels should be expected in 2027.

A similar pattern has taken hold in Iran. Afghan farmers work there as tenants and sharecroppers, often relying on family ties. While cultivation has been reported in provinces including Razavi Khorasan, Kermanshah, Lorestan, and Fars, Sistan-Baluchistan remains the main producing region. Satellite imagery from 2026 shows extensive poppy fields in Sistan-Baluchistan, some using drip irrigation. This costly investment suggests that growers who planted in late 2025 expected little risk of eradication.

Mansfield described a shift from mixed farming to large-scale poppy monoculture in the region. He noted that unlike in Afghanistan, where farmers cultivated a variety of crops, those in Pakistan and Iran are increasingly devoting large plots entirely to poppy. Iranian authorities, preoccupied with the war against the United States and Israel since late February, have been unable or unwilling to destroy the 2026 crop. Experts expect cultivation to rise further in 2027 as the economy weakens and the province's separatist insurgency intensifies.

Opium cultivation is also rebounding inside Afghanistan despite the ban. Production is concentrated in northeastern Badakhshan Province, which accounts for around half of national output, and several southwestern provinces. Farmers in Badakhshan and Helmand have protested and defied the ban, driven by drought, debt, and economic hardship. Mansfield said that in 2026, poppy cultivation remained widespread across Badakhshan's rainfed and irrigated land. Southwestern cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026, though it stayed limited and was concealed within wheat fields and behind compound walls.

The Taliban has issued a directive barring home searches for poppy or opium without a court order. Mansfield warned that this concession may lead farmers in the southwest to believe authorities will tolerate cultivation beyond walled compounds. He said armed groups compete for tax revenues from the drugs trade and other cross-border activities, including people smuggling and trade in fuel, minerals, and other goods. This dynamic reflects and fuels regional violence.