Israel Votes in a Race Defined by One Prime Minister

Voters in Israel head to the polls on Tuesday in a contest that centers on the political future of Benjamin Netanyahu rather than traditional ideological lines.

The race has split the country into two distinct camps, with polling data showing the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs running within a narrow margin of error. Netanyahu first took office three decades ago and has occupied the prime ministerial chair for 19 of those years. His leading challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff who entered politics four years ago. Eisenkot’s party, named Yashar, which translates to straight or direct, advocates for term limits and a government focused on execution rather than rhetoric. At a recent rally in Modi'in, a resident named Noa Sadeh, 56, said she prefers a leader who does the work over one who simply talks.

The opposition coalition includes Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, two former prime ministers and right-wing figures who previously served alongside Netanyahu before political rifts developed. On the far right, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party is campaigning on the premise that Netanyahu has drifted too far left. Yishai Fleisher, a party representative in Bet Shemesh, outlined a platform that includes expanding settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, a new ministry to facilitate the voluntary departure of Palestinians, and the implementation of the death penalty.

Netanyahu has shaped the narrative of the election through aggressive campaigning, including posters that contrast the right with Palestine by pairing opposition leaders with representatives of Arab parties. These parties account for roughly one-fifth of the population. The central tension for the opposition is whether they can secure a governing majority without relying heavily on these Arab parties, a strategy that has kept them on the defensive in pro-Netanyahu media. This week, a Channel 14 commentator used a derogatory term for Eisenkot, a slur that rally speakers echoed but which Eisenkot himself avoided repeating.

Observers remain puzzled by the close race given recent events. The 7 October 2023 attacks occurred while Netanyahu was in power, and the subsequent war in Gaza resulted in over 70,000 Palestinian deaths. Israel stated that a third of the dead were Hamas combatants, but the group was not eradicated. Additionally, Iran’s nuclear program remains intact, and Netanyahu faces a corruption trial and the fallout from his judicial overhaul attempts. Oded Levi, a 2022 Netanyahu voter who attended the Eisenkot rally, argued that the current prime minister bears responsibility for the state of affairs.

Netanyahu’s base remains loyal, supported by narratives that intelligence chiefs kept him uninformed about the October attacks, a claim his allies say is unfounded. His ability to build coalitions is also seen as a major asset. The opposition hopes for a boost from secular, liberal Israelis abroad who are returning to vote, a demographic that may swing the result if the margin is tight. A state ceremony for the 1995 assassination of Yitzhak Rabin took place on Thursday, an event Netanyahu skipped, sending a lower-ranking minister instead. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, expressed optimism about a potential regional security process, though he avoided the word peace.

The cultural resonance of peace persists in certain circles. A video of young Israelis singing Shir LaShalom, the anthem Rabin favored, circulated widely this week. Combined with the influx of returning expatriates, these signals suggest a potential shift in the political dynamic, even as the final vote count approaches.