8 of 11 defectors say North Korea's daughter is the heir

Eight of the 11 North Korean defectors interviewed by The Associated Press believe the leader's daughter, Kim Ju Ae, is being prepared to succeed her father. The remaining three disagree, citing the country's deep patriarchal traditions, but the majority view holds that the state is moving toward a fourth-generation Kim dynasty. This assessment comes as the girl, who is reportedly 13, makes increasingly prominent public appearances.

Kim Jong Un has shown his daughter at major state events, including weapons tests and military parades, for four years. State media has labeled her the leader's most beloved and respected child. In recent footage, an elderly general was shown kneeling before her, and she was positioned in front of her father. South Korea's spy agency agrees with the defectors, assessing that Kim Jong Un intends to pass power to his daughter.

The speculation gained momentum after Kim Jong Un publicly introduced his daughter at a long-range missile launch site in November 2022. Before that date, ordinary citizens knew little about the family's private life. Kim Yumi, a 32-year-old defector living in Seoul, said she did not learn the girl's existence until that event. She noted that North Koreans rarely discuss the Kim family because paying attention could be dangerous. Yumi defected to South Korea by boat three years ago with her family, citing frustration with pandemic regulations that had ruined their fishing business.

Tae Yongho, a former minister at North Korea's Embassy in London who defected in 2016, pointed to specific protocols used when Kim Ju Ae visits missile sites and factories. He stated that senior officials treat her with the same respect they gave Kim Jong Un when he was his father's heir. Kang Mi-Jin, a defector who analyzes the North Korean economy, received similar reports from contacts inside the country via smuggled phones. Jung Gwang-il, who smuggles information into North Korea, found that North Koreans visiting Chinese border towns share the same belief about the succession.

Skepticism persists due to the girl's gender. Only one of the 17 department directors in the ruling Workers' Party is a woman, Kim Yo Jong, who is Kim Jong Un's younger sister. Kim Jeong-Ah, a former army officer who resettled in South Korea in 2009, argued that revering a young girl as supreme leader would seem nonsensical to many North Koreans. However, Lee Si-young, who heads Free North Korea Radio in Seoul, said her older contacts grumbled about a woman taking power but accepted that the Kim family members are viewed as divine figures, making gender less relevant.

The question of succession is critical for the 26 million people living in the impoverished, nuclear-armed nation. North Koreans have no say in selecting their leader and generally accept dynastic rule passively. Ahn Chan-il, a scholar at the World Institute for North Korean Studies, said citizens view hereditary succession as a fact of life. Oh Gyeong-seob, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification, compared the system to presidential elections in South Korea, noting that the ruling elite and general citizens accept it as a matter of course.

Kim Jong Un, 42, is expected to designate one of his children to continue the family's rule. South Korea's spy agency recently assessed that the leader is extremely obese and at high risk of cardiovascular disease, but shows no other signs of poor health. The previous two successions were managed with varying degrees of stability. Kim Jong Il became the official successor in 1994 after working alongside his father for two decades. Kim Jong Un took power in 2011 at age 27 and consolidated control through purges, including the 2013 execution of his uncle Jang Song Thaek.

Choi Song-juk, who fled North Korea in 2015, described the earlier successions as nonsense, admitting she had been brainwashed into accepting them. Defector Jeon Jae-hyun noted that the country's pervasive surveillance apparatus prevents people from voicing discontent. The next step in the process is unclear, but the pattern of public appearances suggests the state is testing the waters for a potential transfer of power to the next generation.