Vance Faces Doubts After GOP Midterm Slump

Vice President JD Vance is weighing a private dilemma: whether to seek the presidency in 2028 after his party suffered sweeping losses in Tuesday's midterm elections. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, allies and confidants are divided on his chances, with some advising him to sit out the race entirely.

The electoral map has shifted dramatically against the Republicans. Democrats flipped seven Senate seats previously held by the party, including the Ohio seat Vance formerly occupied. They also captured the governorships in Georgia and Texas. Within 24 hours of the vote, veteran New York fundraisers reported that major donors questioned Vance's viability and suggested Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as a stronger alternative.

Vance has responded to the losses with a public reassessment of party strategy. In a lengthy social media essay posted this week, he attributed the defeats to the ongoing Iran war. He argued that Republicans must change their relationship with Israel. Many Washington Republicans interpreted the essay as a move to distance himself from President Donald Trump’s unpopular policies. Donald Trump Jr. publicly endorsed the piece, while associates told the Journal that the results signaled a rejection of the war, not the president.

Internal documents reveal earlier tensions over the conflict. Text messages viewed by the Journal show that in January, Vance privately urged Trump not to abandon diplomacy before launching a major military operation. He gathered polling data indicating the public was split 44% to 43% on going to war. Further polls showed 62% of respondents accepted fewer than 100 US combat deaths, while 65% believed Trump should seek congressional approval first. Trump stated on election night that he did not second-guess the decision, saying, "I did the right thing."

Despite these headwinds, Vance retains structural advantages over potential rivals. He holds the position of finance chair for the Republican National Committee, which maintains his access to major donors. He also leads in primary polling and benefits from high name recognition. However, his campaign drew criticism for attacks on winning Democratic candidates, including a description of Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed as "a little weasel who should shut his mouth."

Vance has rejected advice to run for his old Ohio Senate seat or for governor. Two people close to him proposed those options, but he dismissed both. The path forward remains uncertain as Trump has declined to endorse a successor. "Maybe he won't run," Trump said on Wednesday. "I don't know who's going to run."

Vance himself acknowledged the possibility of stepping back. During a CBS News town hall in October, he admitted that "there's a chance" he never runs for president.