Labour urged to re-arm for potential Conservative resurgence

Andy Burnham has instructed the Labour Party to prepare for a renewed challenge from the Conservatives at the next general election. This move follows growing concern within the government that the party has been overly focused on Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and the Greens, potentially neglecting the traditional opposition. Downing Street sources indicated that the Prime Minister wants Labour headquarters to refocus on the Tories as a serious electoral threat after more than two years of prioritizing other parties.

Sources close to the leadership emphasized the volatility of voter support. One source noted that Burnham is aware of this instability, stating that while the Conservatives are currently trailing in the polls, their trajectory is upward. The warning was clear that the party could bounce back ahead of the election and that complacency toward their old foe was dangerous.

Recent polling data supports these concerns. The Conservatives received 24% of the vote in the last general election, a figure that had previously dipped to 18%. However, data from More in Common shows that support rose to 25% last week. This marks the first time in 18 months that the party has exceeded its vote share at the time of its record election defeat.

Many Conservative MPs, who previously viewed their party's position as existential, now believe there is a viable path back to power. This optimism is driven by Kemi Badenoch’s apparent shift in strategy. She is increasingly focusing on the economy rather than culture wars, a move that seems to resonate with core supporters and higher earners, particularly in the south of England.

A senior Downing Street figure explained that while Burnham does not want officials to ignore Reform UK, which has dipped in the polls amid scrutiny of its finances, the party must plan for a Tory resurgence. Another insider described the Conservative strategy as targeting higher earners. While this may not be sufficient to win the next election outright, it places them more in contention, necessitating a response from Labour.

Several cabinet ministers, including Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander, Treasury Chief Secretary Emma Reynolds, and Europe Minister Hamish Falconer, hold seats that face direct Conservative challenges. Labour MPs in areas such as Hertfordshire, Kent, and parts of London, including Finchley and Harrow, are also considered at risk. One tactic under discussion involves highlighting the prospect of a Tory-Reform pact to encourage voters to stay with Labour to prevent Farage from gaining power.

Another strategic focus is on the Conservative brand overall. While Badenoch’s personal ratings are relatively strong, the party lags significantly behind Labour. Polling indicates that only a third of people who believe Badenoch is doing a good job would vote for her party. Labour officials insist they keep the official opposition in their sights daily but acknowledge the need to step up their wider strategy.

The party is preparing to devote more resources to countering the Tories from January, ahead of the May elections. A group of London MPs has urged Burnham to refocus, warning that Labour headquarters is getting caught out by obsessing over Reform and the Greens. One minister with a slim majority noted that colleagues in more traditional Tory seats have been raising this alarm for some time.

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, supported the broadened focus. He stated that Labour now has two fronts on its right flank and must prepare for all outcomes. Tryl suggested that the biggest risk is voter self-sorting, where Reform wins right-leaning votes in the red wall while the Conservatives capture votes in affluent southern regions. He added that the shallow nature of Labour’s previous victory means more seats could become Labour-Tory contests than previously thought.