Moscow Airports: Ukrainian Drone Strikes Force Daily Closures

Ukrainian drone operations have grounded flights at Moscow's major airports almost every day in October. The four primary hubs in the capital, Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo, suspended operations on a near-daily basis. On some days, these airports remained closed for up to nine hours. This level of disruption marks an intensification of a pattern that has persisted for several months.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined the strategic intent behind these strikes in early September. He stated that Ukraine would aim to cut off the airspace surrounding Moscow and other Russian destinations. In a direct address to airlines, insurers, and travelers, he declared that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe. The following day, Ukraine sent a formal warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization. Ukraine has kept its own airspace closed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The immediate cause of the flight cancellations is a safety measure implemented by Rosaviatsiya, Russia's aviation authority. This procedure, known as the "carpet" protocol, mandates the closure of airspace over a region or around specific airports when an aircraft violates borders, weapons are deployed, or unidentified objects appear in the sky. Oleksandr Laneckij, the chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, explained that the protocol treats every drone as a military threat. He compared the current situation to the disruptions caused by Yemen's Houthis in Saudi airspace, noting that Ukraine's military capabilities exceed those of the Houthis.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev assessed that Ukraine could severely disrupt air traffic around Moscow without needing to fully close the airspace. He noted that triggering the protocol requires only simple drones that lack warheads or long-range capabilities. Matvejev pointed out that Ukraine's industrial capacity allows for the production of hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily. In October, writer Simon Shuster noted in The Atlantic that these efforts are just getting started.

Experts suggest that Russian air defenses have not been fully effective against the incoming drones. Matvejev argued that if Russian forces could easily shoot the drones down, they would have done so by now. He added that Russia would have deployed additional air-defense troops if it had the personnel available.

The safety risks for civilian flights remain a concern for industry experts. Laneckij warned that Russia might lower the threshold for activating the carpet protocol, increasing the danger of incidents similar to the Azerbaijan Airlines crash on Christmas Day in 2024. Investigators determined that a Russian air-defense missile, fired to counter drones, struck that aircraft, killing 38 people. Matvejev observed that little has changed in Russia's air-defense protocols since that event. He distinguished between low-risk engagements with machine guns and high-risk engagements with missiles, which can deflect toward nearby airliners due to mass-production defects.

Matvejev emphasized that drones do not require explosives to cause damage, as a physical collision with an airplane can be severe. He estimated that a drone traveling from Ukraine to Moscow must weigh dozens of kilograms. The impact of these strikes extends beyond Moscow. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. In September, Zelenskyy reported that Kyiv's airport and Boryspil, located near the capital, were also struck.

Foreign airlines must now balance the military threat against demand and insurance costs. Laneckij stated that if insurers rate the risk as very high, they will likely raise premiums, which will increase ticket prices. The competitive landscape in Russian aviation has already shrunk as many airlines have gone out of business. This has pushed up demand for seats on the remaining foreign carriers. Laneckij concluded that the decision for airlines to stay or leave depends on the price they must pay for the danger faced.