Black Sea Attacks on Grain Shipping Raise Alarm Over Global Food Security

Attacks on commercial vessels have become an established tactic in today's wars. In the Gulf, they are part of the continuing war of attrition between the United States and Iran; in the Black Sea, they have become an increasingly prominent feature of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Most ships being targeted are not military but commercial, carrying oil, gas and petroleum products or food commodities such as wheat and corn, all essential either to the functioning of economies or to human survival.

October brought a sharp escalation in the Black Sea, with drone attacks hitting at least nine vessels off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO members. The strikes are seen as a dangerous test by Moscow of the alliance's cohesion. Several NATO members have already complained of Russian incursions into their territory, raising questions about whether Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which provides for collective defence, could be invoked.

Russia has repeatedly bombarded Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and the Danube River. With most of them disrupted, Kyiv has turned to alternative routes to reach markets in Africa and the Middle East: a Danube corridor through Romania using the ports of Izmail, Reni and Constanta; overland rail and truck routes through Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania to European ports; and a maritime corridor from the Odesa region that runs along NATO coastlines toward Turkiye and through the Bosphorus Strait.

Those alternatives have not escaped attack. Maritime security company Ambrey reported that the monthly rate of attacks associated with the Danube corridor in the quarter from July to September was 3.7 times higher than in the first half of 2026. The Danube's share of cargo handled at Ukrainian ports jumped from about 10 percent between January and June to 74 percent in August.

Grain and vegetable oil made up about 40 percent of Ukraine's total merchandise exports in the first half of this year, which helps explain Russia's focus on ports and shipping. Ukraine's agriculture minister estimates that if the ports remain closed, the country will lose at least $8bn between June this year and June 2027, equivalent to 20 percent of its total export revenues last year. Russian attacks have largely halted traffic through Ukraine's Black Sea ports, which previously handled about 90 percent of its agricultural exports.

This summer, Kyiv redirected its drones towards Russian grain and vegetable oil export facilities and commercial vessels, including grain carriers, a shift from its earlier focus on Russian energy and military sites. The strikes disrupted Russia's main grain export terminals on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, which had previously handled nearly a quarter of Russia's wheat exports, and forced Moscow to divert some exports to Baltic ports. Ukrainian military officials said 76 Russian vessels were struck between July 6 and 11. Russia suspended exports through the Don-Azov Canal in mid-July, and an attack on a major grain terminal at the Russian port of Taman in late July dealt a further setback.

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter and Ukraine ranks fifth; together they account for nearly 27 percent of global wheat exports. The attacks have pushed wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to their highest levels since 2023, with prices rising about 20 percent in the first nine months of this year. Ukrainian strikes have reportedly knocked out an estimated 70 percent of Russia's grain export capacity, while Russian attacks have halted shipments from Odesa, putting nearly 90 percent of Ukrainian grain shipments out of operation. The escalation has coincided with the peak export season for winter wheat, the dominant variety grown in both countries, which is harvested in summer and shipped in late summer and early autumn.

The fighting comes as drought and climate change shrink global harvests. The US Department of Agriculture estimates that combined production by the world's seven largest wheat exporting countries is likely to fall 11 percent in the 2026 to 2027 season. The result is a dual threat: the capacity to produce food is declining just as the ability to deliver it to importing markets is disrupted, amid rising transport costs and the growing expense of securing shipments.

The war unfolding in the Black Sea is expected to translate into higher food prices, rising import bills and the depletion of strategic reserves, particularly in Arab and African countries that depend heavily on imported grain. With the disruption of energy supplies in Gulf waters already fuelling inflation, the decline in food supplies from the Black Sea threatens to add another equally dangerous source of price pressure.